Original post by kathi on May 18, 2023. Translated by Lisa Scheer in 2023/24.
Disclaimer: Some of the links in this post might redirect you to a site in German. Feel free to use Machine Translation (such as DeepL or Google Translate) to get the information provided on these sites.
„Climate change? There’s always been climate change!“ – Facts and arguments for discussions concerning climate change
When discussing climate change, its consequences and possible strategies against it, we often hear the same phrases from people who are either not sufficiently informed or who don’t even want to be confronted with this topic because it makes them uncomfortable. Strategies to protect our climate often lead to people feeling criticised in their actions or feeling powerless which leads to them being defensive. In this series of articles, we want to have a look at often said phrases and have a look at them objectively and by looking at facts. This not only serves to deliver information, but it should also help our readers when discussing climate change. Today, we will have a look at Myth #1, namely the statement „Climate change? There has always been climate change!“
It’s true that climate change has always existed. The history of our planet is related to significant, natural fluctuations in climate. Ever since the development of planet earth up until four billion years ago, the surface temperature of Earth was on average 100 degrees Celsius hot. This was followed by multiple ice ages with warm and cold periods, which left our planet covered in ice – sometimes more sometimes less. At the moment we are live in a warm period of an ice age. What’s the „but“ here? Homo sapiens has not really seen the effects of the historical climate fluctuations. If we made the history of Earth one year long, humans would only enter the scene on December 31st about half an hour before midnight. Even more thrilling and disconcerting: Only for a blink of an eye, namely around 200 years ago, humans have started to actively influence the climate on our planet.
It is true that several natural factors impact the climate.
The climate of planet Earth is created by a complex combination of various forces: For example, there is the sun and its number of sunspots, the trajectory of Earth around the sun and the axis of rotation of the Earth. Only through the atmosphere and the resulting greenhouse effect life on earth has become possible. If the atmospheric composition changes, the global temperature changes as well. In the past this happened because jungles disappeared in marshy soils and large amounts of CO2 were bound through this. Strong volcanic eruptions, so-called super-eruptions, also eject additional particles into the atmosphere and change the temperature at least temporarily. The climate is a product of interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans, and land surfaces. These natural drivers have determined the climate of Earth for millions and billions of years. Why is the „human factor“ taken so seriously then? Can the current warming not be another natural process?
… experts agree that the current warming is „human made“.
Ever since the beginning of industrialisation (in the middle of the 19th century) humans have actively been changing the composition of the atmosphere and thereby influencing the greenhouse effect. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as those of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide have risen dramatically over the last 200 years, which can irrevocably be proven by science. From pre-industrial approx. 280 ppm to current approx. 420 ppm. The reason for this is also evident: CO2 results primarily from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Methane and nitrous oxide are primarily side product of modern agriculture. Heavy clearing of forests leads to plants absorbing less CO2. No other natural factor can explain these changes.
Experts agree: Ever since the 1990s scientists have agreed that climate change during the past 200 years is not due to natural reasons. Current metastudies show that 97 to 98% of all climate experts name human activities as the reason for the current warming of our planet. Academies of science from more than 80 countries and other institutions agree. Such an agreement is extremely rare in the scientific field.
We might hear that earth has dealt with climate change in the past. How could our current situation be that bad? We could say that planet earth deals very well with climate change, but life on earth not so much.
The danger of the current warming is due to how fast it happens: In 2023 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was already 50% higher than before industrialisation. The methane content is two and a half times higher now. Estimations on the expected temperature change until 2100 lie between 1.6 and 4.7 degrees Celsius. For classification: There has been no comparable development in the last 10,000 years.
A look on the history of earth shows that flora and fauna could not adapt quickly enough to extreme climate change in the past, even though it spanned over thousands of years. This has led to five mass extinction events – to a collapse of the previous ecosystems. Experts talk about us being in the middle of the sixth huge mass extinction. That’s not exactly a bright future.
…only if we accept that humans are responsible for the current climate change, we are able to act.
Now the good news: We can change what we actively cause. The current warming is not our destiny, but our decision instead. Through the collaboration of countries, enterprises and institutions and the actions of individuals we can slow down climate change and find solutions for climate change at the same time, even though we cannot stop it. The prerequisite for this is that we recognise our role in climate change and accept it. This is the only way we remain capable of acting. If we don’t start acting now, climate change will cause a self-amplifying heating spiral (thawing permafrost, reduced reflection of the melted ice surfaces and more).
Arguments against myth #1 „Climate change has always existed“ in summary:
- Yes, the climate has changed drastically over the course of the earth’s history through natural factors. Homo sapiens, the modern human, has lived in relatively consistent climatic conditions and has never confronted the issues that are threatening us right now before.
- For 200 years humans have dominated the changes of climate through the burning of fossil fuels. We emit too much of CO2 too quickly. More than natural CO2-reservoirs can absorb. Among experts there is overwhelming consent that humans are the cause of the current climate change. 97 to 98% of climate experts agree on this.
- The problem is that climate change progresses extremely quickly without countermeasures and our ecosystem cannot adapt to this. Until 2100, in 80 years, the average temperature could rise by up to 4.1 degrees Celsius.
- Our beautiful planet will probably survive a change in temperature like this and all the terrible consequences thereof. But humans have never lived through such grave changes in climate before.
- Only if we can understand and accept that climate change is no natural phenomenon, we can take countermeasures. What’s stopping you?
“It’s real, it’s us, it’s bad, experts agree, there’s hope!”
Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale University
We hope you will have constructive discussions.
Sources:
- Was wir heute übers Klima wissen – Basisfakten zum Klimawandel, die in der Wissenschaft unumstritten sind, Deutsches Klima Konsortium, September 2022
https://www.deutsches-klima-konsortium.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdfs/Publikationen_DKK/2022_basisfakten-klimawandel-web.pdf - So funktioniert der natürliche Klimawandel. Das Klima ändert sich auch ohne menschgemachtes CO2. Was ist der Unterschied zum heutigen Klimawandel?, Quarks.de, 25.07.2021
https://www.quarks.de/umwelt/klimawandel/so-funktioniert-der-natuerliche-klimawandel/ - Gibt es wirklich einen Klimawandel?, Helmholtz Klima Initiative, August 2021
https://www.helmholtz-klima.de/klimafakten/behauptung-es-gibt-noch-keinen-wissenschaftlichen-konsens-zum-klimawandel - Der Klimawandel ist keine Glaubenssache, Universität-Hamburg, 27.09.2019
https://www.uni-hamburg.de/newsroom/im-fokus/2019/09-27-klimaleugner.html#:~:text=Der%20Treibhauseffekt%20ist%20tats%C3%A4chlich%20ein,geh%C3%B6ren%20Kohlendioxid%2C%20Methan%20und%20Wasserdampf - Behauptung: „Das Klima hat sich immer schon gewandelt“, Klimafakten.de, Juni 2022
https://www.klimafakten.de/behauptungen/behauptung-das-klima-hat-sich-immer-schon-gewandelt - Atmosphärische Treibhausgas-Konzentrationen, Umweltbundesamt, 20.03.2023
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/klima/atmosphaerische-treibhausgas-konzentrationen - Die Geschichte des Lebens in einem Jahr, ZDF.de, 28.08.2016
https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/terra-x/die-geschichte-des-lebens-in-einem-jahr-102.html - Zu erwartende Klimaänderungen bis 2100, Umweltbundesamt, 28.11.2014
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/klimawandel/zu-erwartende-klimaaenderungen-bis-2100 - Nach dem Weltuntergang, Spektrum der Wissenschaft, 02.07.2021
https://www.spektrum.de/news/erdgeschichte-das-sechste-massenaussterben/1889650
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